The Jazz are half a game out of the playoffs right now,
and, as Steve Luhm pointed out earlier on Twitter, only two and a half games
out of the number four spot, giving them home-court advantage in the first
round. There are twenty games remaining
before the post-season, and thankfully for Utah fans, the schedule for players
in a note jersey could be much more terrifying.
Utah does play 11 of the final 20 on the road, and 8 of
those games are back-to-backs. Certainly
the most terrifying of those back-to-backs is playing the Spurs in Texas on
April 8th, then having to face them the next day at the ESA. But otherwise, the schedule should be
manageable should Corbin continue leading his team down this frankly astounding
post-All Star break path:
·
There are ten remaining games against teams with
records currently worse than the Jazz (3/22@SAC, 3/26@NJN, 3/30vSAC, 4/2@POR,
4/4vPHX, 4/6vGSW, 4/13@NOH, 4/18@POR, 4/24vPHX, 4/26vPOR).
·
There are four games against teams currently
with superior records but by a margin of two or less games (3/23vDEN, 3/28@BOS,
4/11@HOU, 4/14@MEM).
·
That leaves the Jazz with six games against
division and conference favorites (3/25@ATL, 3/31@LAC, 4/8@SAS, 4/9vSAS,
4/16vDAL, 4/21vORL).
There are a
bunch of reasons why I feel this schedule should work to Utah’s advantage. First, the final three games of the season
(ORL, PHX, POR) are all played in Salt Lake City, with plenty of rest to prep
for both the Magic and Suns games. Dwight
and the Magic also have a nice break before the April 21st game
(both UTA and ORL play their previous game on the 18th), but while
the Jazz only have the short flight from Portland home, Orlando has to travel
from Boston (and play at altitude late in the season). This travel advantage doesn’t translate for
the Phoenix game, unfortunately.
Second, the
Jazz play their toughest road games in the next two and a half weeks, starting with
Atlanta on Sunday night. This is good
news considering the wave of excitement and energy (not to mention wins) the
Jazz are currently enjoying. The Jazz’s final
three games against the league’s best are all going to happen on 300 West and
South Temple.
Third, of
cellar-dwellers and teams slumping in that direction, the Jazz get a nice
handful of such teams late in the season.
Barring a bunch of New Orleans moments (why must we play down, why??),
there should be a gang of relatively easy W’s.
We have two games against the 17-29 Kings (3/22 and 3/30), one against
Deron and the 15-32 Nets (3/26), one against the 18-25 Warriors (4/6), one
(revenge) game against the Hornets (4/13), and three against poor, poor put-a-bird-on-it
Portland (4/2, 4/18 and the season closer on 4/26). That’s eight gimmies if the Jazz can keep
their heads on straight.
Fourth,
assuming the Jazz beat only the worst inferior teams mentioned in point three
above, split with similar teams, and take home two wins against the big boys,
that’s 12 wins to close out the season and the Jazz end up with a .545 record. That alone is good enough to bump Denver out
of 7th right now. But that
assumes the Jazz can’t top the Suns in one or both of their in-Utah meetings. Taking two of the games against Denver,
Boston, Houston or Memphis is modestly realistic. Three of those four games are on the road,
and Denver likely hasn’t forgotten their home loss to the Jazz back in
January. Playing in Boston is tough
(such an amazing arena and fans!).
Houston and Memphis are, obviously, the most available games of that
group of four. And of the big boy games,
Atlanta and the Clippers are not invincible, plus we get three at home. Considering all of this, let’s assume the
Jazz win 9 of 10 against worse-record contenders (we’ll say Nash snags another
W), beat HOU and MEM, and somehow manage to win four of those six elite-team
contests. Now we’re talking about a team
that finishes 39-27. That’s a .591
record which bumps the Clippers out of forth (currently at .578). Obviously that’s a best-case scenario and probably
not all that likely. But it’s also not
impossible.
Finally,
assume that the three current playoff teams within two games of the Jazz (HOU,
DEN, MEM) continue on pace through the rest of their games. To get to fourth, the Jazz need to best those
three plus Dallas and the Clippers.
·
The Clippers are 6-7 (.462) since March 1, a
pace good enough to land them between Minny and Portland for the year. The Clippers have 21 games remaining; if they
step up a bit and finish 11-10 that’ll put LAC at 37-29 going into the playoffs. That’s a .560 record on the season, slotting
them between Memphis and Denver. 11 of
the remaining 21 games are on the road, though April is far more road heavy
than March (9 of 14 April games are on the road). They have ten back-to-back games remaining as
well. However, it’s entirely possible
that the Clippers turn the ship around (ha!) and return to form, as they only
face 6 top-tier opponents before the post-season (but only 7 lotto-bound
franchises).
·
Currently Dirk and the crew are riding a 4-game
win streak (including a 17-point blowout of Denver at The Can on Monday), but
they also have lost 8 of their last 14.
The reigning champs are still a savvy team, and more likely than not,
this streak is the beginning of a serious push to land a division title and
home court advantage. But the nature of
DAL’s remaining schedule favors a more modest picture. Dallas has 19 games to play, with 7 of those games
against top-4 teams. 11 of the 19 are
away games for the Mavs, and 10 are back-to-backs. Dallas does still get to see ten games
against sub-.500 teams, but six of those games are on the road, and two of them
are against the Knicks (if that means anything).
Between
these two teams, I think the Clippers probably don’t hang on to the four spot
in the West. Given the remaining
schedule and the recently blasé ball, they don’t stay 7.5 games ahead of the
Jazz for long. The Mavs are more likely
to continue with their existing pace, if not improve their winning percentage.
***
So what’s the takeaway here? A good close to the season puts the Jazz at
.545; a great close wraps up at .591 (see point four). It’s unlikely that Houston, Denver, or
Memphis is going to surge much at this point, and the Clippers are trending
downwards. So to see a Jazz team that
ends the season in fourth in the West, there are two things will suggest the
gods are smiling on The House That Larry Built.
First is to see the Mavs struggle as the season winds down. That .591 record is good enough for the Jazz
to push the Mavs out of the top four by itself, but with the more realistic
.545 Denver is going to have to finish 9-13 (not to mention that .545 isn’t
enough to move past Memphis). For a team
with Dirk and the Jet attempting to repeat a championship, that’s not terribly
likely.
The other will be to see the Jazz win one or both of the back-to-backs
against the Spurs. Those two games are
games 11 and 12 of the 20 remaining, and the Jazz’s final back-to-back. Beating the #2 team in the West obviously
would be a huge ego boost going into the final stretch, where the Jazz are
likely going to be controlling their own destiny as to who they will face in
the first round. If the Jazz can beat
SAS twice, it makes finishing sixth or seventh much less intimidating and gives
us momentum going against (likely) them in round one. Lose both of them, and it seems that the .545
record is going to be a tough nut to crack.
